On the other hand, the financial system does not manage to leave the problems back. And above, the turbulences in Europe threaten affecting it since several organizations have European assets in their portfolios of investment! The positive (only seeing it in terms of capacity of recovery of the financial intermediation), is the postulates on the new regulation, that can benefit immediately to dynamics from the credit to the consumption. The familiar consumption still is affected by high indebtedness that they have at the present time and that is added to the loss of wealth that suffered by the financial collapse. With the families in jams the real estate and automotive sector only hopes that the government of the USA continues impelling the demand via new fiscal stimuli. This situation is not for anything attractive for the investments, reason why its effect clearly is limited. This economy of the USA, certainly has little force to obtain one maintained recovery. And the fiscal problems, limit the margin of action of the public sector to give continuity to the packages of stimuli. Weakness is by noticeable, and without to consider at least, possibility that some of the risks is transformed into a situation of concrete crisis, that in case of continuing the recovery of the American economy, the same at the most will be nearer 2%, in the best one of the cases, that over 3% dreamed by Epstein.

For those who trust the perception of the market analysts, the projections of 50 main indicators that monthly they are published in the American economy and that knows like Blue Chip Economic Indicators, they feed the hopes since they have not observed in any case, elements that make think about the possibility of a relapse in the American economy. Even, these pronosticadores slightly anticipate a growth below 3% in 2010 and over this value, for the 2011. If we go away to the ten more optimistic visions, these aim as much at a growth of 4% for 2010 as for 2011, with an unemployment that would get to fall until 7.9% of the PEA for 2011 ends. The bet of these optimists leans strongly in the roll of the consumption of the families, roll that, as it commented to them previously, I doubt seriously that they can fulfill. The other argument that is exhibited to trust a strong recovery is as weak as the mentioned one that it leans in struck the consuming American: the past experience indicates that after a strong recession, the recovery surpasses the product tip reached previously in just a short time, drawing a dynamics of the product in the form of V. Who support this argument, they have given to too much relevance to 5.9% of growth of the GIP reached in the last quarter him of 2009 and forget that the same has been reached only through a strong fiscal stimulus. The USA: Vigorous recovery? I believe that for this 2010 American economy it would have to be satisfied to a moderate expansion and the gradual disappearance of the multiple risks threaten that it, among them, the agravated fiscal fragility by recently approved reform of the system of Health that will imply US$ 1 trillion in next the ten years. Horacio Pozzo INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY Which yes grows is the portfolio of the new one to newsletter of investment World-wide Value, with action with strong bullish potential in Wall s$street. I invite it to continue reading to know our services of investment Another Blogs Related.


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